Factories were forced to close for part of the year. This had nothing to do with interventions. Michigan was all about supply chain interruption in the automobile industry. Both had stringent NPIs but lost a lot of ground in terms of GDP. There were two outliers: New York and Michigan. And when you line them up according to their interventionist policies, you find that states that intervened more heavily tended to have fewer COVID cases per capita and smaller declines in GDP. In contrast, large states typically have more diverse economies. Even though it had very poor health outcomes, North Dakota can do very well in terms of GDP when oil prices go up, because of the dominance of petroleum production in the value of goods and services produced there. But that’s one reason we didn’t include small states like North Dakota. To be sure, states have different economic compositions. How do we know this has anything to do with COVID restrictions? Couldn’t it just be a coincidence - that some state economies were better suited to weather this particular storm, regardless of how stringent their interventions were? Teacher Brittany Myers, center, at a protest in front of the Hillsborough County School District office in Tampa on July 16, 2020. Second, the same pattern showed up across all big states: On average, the ones with more stringent interventions had both better health outcomes and better economic outcomes. Yet California also performed better with respect to GDP than either Texas or Florida. First, California had more stringent interventions and a lower infection rate than either Texas or Florida, two states to which it’s often compared. GDP - states with a population of 5 million or greater. The states that were considered for this analysis are basically the states that produce most of the U.S. But early on, we did not have any 2020 pandemic data to answer that question. There might even be a positive correlation. The evidence suggested that policies that are good for people’s health during a pandemic - like NPIs - are not necessarily bad for the economy. When you say “something,” what do you mean? It's something we saw in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic as well. It was something that we started to see in Scandinavia. Ron DeSantis is telling voters, in effect, “I saved the economy by opening bars and banning masks.” What made you suspect that the prevailing narrative - this idea that there’s a trade-off between public health and the health of the economy - might be wrong? That’s the opposite of the conventional wisdom. But those declines were smaller in states with more stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions than states with less stringent NPIs. On average, GDP declined in 2020, and it declined everywhere. We generally view economic performance through the lens of gross domestic product. Yahoo News: Is it now fair to say that so-called lockdown states performed better economically than so-called looser states during the 2020 pandemic? (Derek Lee/Disneyland Resort via Getty Images) The Downtown Disney District in Anaheim, Calif., begins reopening on July 9, 2020. According to the latest quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, not only did big states with more stringent COVID measures end 2020 with fewer infections per capita, they also tended to post better economic growth numbers last year than states with fewer restrictions. Last week, this argument got a boost with the publication of a new report by economists at the University of California, Los Angeles. The more the virus seems to be under control, the more eager people will be to participate in the economy. In fact, these experts argued, nonpharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs - a set of 20 government responses such as business closures, mask mandates and stay-at-home advisories that Oxford University rates according to stringency - can have an economic upside. Yet for much of the past year, some experts have quietly advanced a counterargument: that economic activity is mainly affected by the rising and falling severity of the pandemic itself - not the relative strictness of the measures implemented to mitigate it. They would be out of business if Fried were governor.” Speaking at a New Smyrna Beach restaurant, DeSantis said Fried “would have had this business shuttered for the whole year. “She’s a lockdown lobbyist,” DeSantis recently said in reference to Democrat Nikki Fried, one of his 2022 gubernatorial opponents.
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